Doubling Up

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I’ve often thought that we spend too much time worrying about what China thinks of other countries (especially the one we happen to live in!) when the stark reality is that the health of their domestic economy, and the wellbeing, prosperity and safety of their own people, occupies at least the first 10 major items (if not the first 100) on the priority list for the nation’s leaders. This is especially the case during a global pandemic, and at a time when their leadership is being constantly criticised by foreign media and politicians around the world.

So it’s not that surprising to find that Morgan Stanley have recently revised their forecasts to show that Chinese domestic consumption is set to double in the next 10 years. According to a new report, “by 2030, China’s private consumption is set to reach $12.7 trillion, about the same amount that American consumers currently spend, and is up from the forecast three years ago of $9.7 trillion, and the $5.6 trillion Chinese consumers spent in 2019. Spurring this expected growth are: greater government emphasis on policies to support the domestic Chinese economy, increases in household income, further growth of urban areas, and changes in technology and demographic shifts.”

There won’t be many other countries in the world projecting a doubling of consumer spending in only the next 10 years.

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